Series Preview: #DBacks (77-76) vs. #SFGiants (89-64)
The Diamondbacks have an elimination number of four, and there’s nine games left for them to pull of an unlikely miracle. They need a lot of help, but also need to do a lot themselves, beginning with sweeping the Giants, who while they have clinched, still are acting like they have a fire of intention in their bellies. Interesting bit of recent trivia, the last time the Snakes have lost a series, it was against the Giants in Arizona, and the last time the Giants lost a series it was against the DBacks in San Francisco. It is also the only series the Giants have lost in September. The Giants will miss Tyler Skaggs, who was scratched to take the rest of the season off. Josh Collmenter and all of his tomahawks will take his place tonight.
Tuesday, September 25th: RHP Josh Collmenter vs. RHP Tim Lincecum
One sentence summary: Collmenter’s last start was July 27th against the Mets (6 IP, 5 ER), and Lincecum has had the lowest wOBA against of .302 in September of every month this season.
Wednesday, September 26th: LHP Wade Miley vs. RHP Matt Cain
One sentence summary: RHH (.312) have about a full tenth higher of a wOBA against Miley than LHH (.214), while Cain’s last two outings against the DBacks have seen 11 IP, 7 H, 7 BB, 10 K, 2 ER.
Thursday, September 27th: LHP Patrick Corbin vs. LHP Barry Zito
One sentence summary: Corbin’s last outing against the Giants of 8 IP was a season-high, while Zito’s .318 wOBA against in September means he’s probably pretty lucky to be sporting a 2.66 ERA in the same month.
Panda vs. Snake
Impressive when a guy has over a 200 wRC+ in the last week like the Diamondbacks have in Chris Johnson (221), but more impressive that the Giants have four guys. I’ll get to that in the next paragraph. Justin Upton is also contributing, but without the long ball (.467 wOBA L7, .338 wOBA overall). Aaron Hill (2 HR L7, 24 HR overall), Miguel Montero (.442 wOBA L7, .369 wOBA overall), and the notorious Paul Goldschmidt (.412 wOBA L7, .368 wOBA overall) have been enjoying their time against San Diego and Colorado. Gerardo Parra — though only 11 PA — is the only one really struggling of late (.201 wOBA L7, .309 wOBA overall).
Those four guys with over a 200 wRC+ in the past week? I’m sure you got Pablo (362!), then Hector (222 in 11 PA), Scutaro (203), and Belt (202 in 15 PA). Pablo’s .703 wOBA in the past week is outstanding and I’m going to venture a guess that it doesn’t stay that hot for the remainder of the season. In addition to the four guys I mentioned, Angel Pagan has also been leading the lineup off right (.443 wOBA L7, .344 wOBA overall). Guys that have been slowing down a bit include the awkward Hunter Pence (.191 wOBA L7, ) and the blue-eyed Brandon Crawford (.207, .281). Angel Pagan is two SB away from 30, and two HR away from 10.
It should be interesting to watch how Bochy plays the field here (I giggled when I typed that), but by scratching Skaggs, I’m not sure the DBacks have concerns about winning right now.
Tuesday: Diamondbacks win (Goldschmidt)
Wednesday: Giants win (Matt Cain)
Thursday: Giants win (Because I said so)
What I’ve Been Reading (that I believe are important)
Alex Pavlovic’s Postgame Notes from Sunday
Grant Brisbee’s little Barry Zito piece
Bill Baer’s response to a Philly media member and only using the eyes to scout
The broadcaster bias work on WSJ
Wendy Thurm’s Melky article on Fangraphs