Results tagged ‘ Gregor Blanco ’
In news that broke shortly after I left for work, the Giants decided to take care of business and answer all questions about their starting left fielder for 2014 in former Washington National, Seattle Mariner, and Baltimore Oriole Michael Morse. Why couldn’t the Giants have done that yesterday when I was home? Well, the benefit of being late to the party is being able to read the analysis of some of the most read writers in the land for this deal. Namely, the takes of beat writer Alex Pavlovic, Fangraphs writer Jeff Sullivan, and SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee. I think if you’ve read those three, you’ll get an idea for how I will be molding my thinking, but I’m nearly on the fence on this one, but mostly on the side of “does not approve.” Is this one of the contracts you’ll use to point out why you hate Brian Sabean? No, but it could also be one of those ones you look at in 2015 and think, “Man, Morse really Aubrey Huff‘d that one, didn’t he?” You won’t really know what that means until 2015, so stay tuned.
Let’s start with Michael Morse. “The Beast.” The Old Man’s Mark Trumbo. He really has a pretty good downward spiral going on his stats from 2010 through 2013, but that’s deceiving because of the format of this chart:
|162 Game Avg.||162||573||148||28||1||23||34||129||.281||.334||.473||119|
|SEA (5 yrs)||183||644||154||31||1||16||43||145||.264||.326||.403||102|
|WSN (4 yrs)||378||1353||366||68||3||67||77||303||.294||.343||.514||130|
|BAL (1 yr)||12||30||3||0||0||0||1||7||.103||.133||.103||-35|
|AL (5 yrs)||195||674||157||31||1||16||44||152||.257||.318||.389||95|
|NL (4 yrs)||378||1353||366||68||3||67||77||303||.294||.343||.514||130|
If you’ve read the articles on Morse, you know about his wrist problems and that the Giants checked in on that and have been “assured he is healthy,” but no word on if he’s in the Best Shape of His Life. To be fair, let’s say a healthy Michael Morse checks in for the 2014 season and gives the Giants 135 games or so. That’s pretty optimistic already, but here’s what Morse is trying to beat when it comes to the offensive numbers the Giants put up from their LF:
- Five home runs (last in the MLB)
- .337 slugging percentage (last)
- .314 on base percentage (19th-best)
- .257 batting average (16th-best)
- 25 doubles (third fewest)
I think a healthy Morse easily beats two of those — the first two, and comes close on the OBP. The doubles I’m not confident on. The average I’d be willing to place a bet on that he beats it. Here are some marks Morse will have trouble not beating:
- 11 stolen bases (really that’s it? — T-14th most)
- 52 walks (19th-most)
- Any defensive metric, really (how you gon’ beat Gregor Blanco)
He may come close to matching the 135 K’s the Giants LF had in 2013, but even if he puts up numbers at a 2012 ratio, I’m not sure anybody’s going to mind much. Where people will mind is when they watch him play defense.
Gregor Blanco gets his value from his defense, yes, yes, I can hear you mocking me. You know he didn’t become a Top 40 fWAR outfielder by posting a near-average wRC+ or by putting up a .307 wOBA. Gregor Blanco is a not your ideal starter, a good platoon guy, and now becomes a great bench option for the Giants. Fans will be happy to see him replace Morse in the late part of the game, but when I was thinking about the best 4th outfielders in the game, I thought Blanco might be the best one on paper until I thought about the logjam in Los Angeles that is the four-headed Dodgers outfield. Whether it’s Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, Matt Kemp, or Andre Ethier, most baseball fans would probably take any of them over Blanco, love him as I do. Maybe the Cardinals have a good fourth outfielder because they’re not allowed to have no depth. Same with the Rangers.
I really hope Morse stays healthy. He will be frustrating to watch on defense on any ball he has to chase, but if that man is ready to rake, rake he will. Just imagine a lineup where Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, and Michael Morse all hit bombs for a living in 2014. Ok now wake up because baseball would never let that happen. This article is going to look so stupid when Morse injures himself in Spring Training.
Monday provided the good times for teams to decide whether they would hold on to players on their 25-man roster, essentially tendering them a one-year deal that could go through the arbitration process, or non-tendering them, making them a free agent. Beat writer Hank Schulman gave a one-tweet rundown of whom you needed to get ready for:
— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) December 3, 2013
So, with that said, let it be known that the Giants decided to tender Brandon Belt, Gregor Blanco, Tony Abreu, Yusmeiro Petit, and Joaquin Arias, while saying ta-ta officially to Sandy Rosario and Francisco Peguero. Some thoughts on the tenders (mmm… tenders…):
Belt: The most divisive first baseman on the planet because some thought he was going to be the second coming of Buster Posey and hasn’t been that (yet). Still, being an above-average MLB 1B with above-average MLB numbers make him a no-brainer to keep around. Plus, there have been rumors going around that the Giants would like to get a multi-year deal done with Belt, presumably to buy out his arbitration years through 2017.
Blanco: A joy to watch in the outfield and has decent enough splits against RHP to warrant him being in the lineup against them. Paying a couple mill to someone that can hit RHP and provide you with speed seems worth the money to me.
Abreu: A journeyman that played with four teams at the MLB level in five seasons. Defense isn’t rated as anything positive, and his offense is good against LHP, so while the Giants have no platoon going on with Marco Scutaro or Pablo Sandoval, Abreu’s bat can give some reason to give one of them a day off. For those that want to argue against Abreu’s ’13, his career numbers don’t suggest the 29-year old can keep it consistent.
Petit: He was one pitch away from a perfect game, but let us not forget he also had six outings of six or more strikeouts. In three outings he offered zero walks. In his eight outings, only one time did he not go five innings, and that was in his last start of the season. I do not mind the Giants taking a gamble on Petit to see how much longer he can mystify hitters, but I will admit, I’m not expecting much.
Arias: His value is with the glove, and his ability to play multiple infield positions, and not with the stick. You expect his .346 BABIP against RHP to stick when it’s been a career .298? Me neither. The Giants would be paying probably a little over a million if they held on to him to be depth on their bench. Pinching pennies, but you can get someone younger to do that for half the price. Looks like the Giants have their middle infield bench set as long as nobody else beats out Arias and Abreu for those spots.
To be frank I thought Sandy Rosario and Francisco Peguero were already gone so that’s why this move came as kind of odd to me. That’s what you get when you don’t go on your phone from 10pm-5pm every week day.
Unless Brian Sabean finds a David Freese-Peter Bourjos-like trade out there where he can get an everyday outfielder for an aging player, or get some shiny Rule 5 pick, the Giants are left to scour free agency for a platoon partner for Gregor Blanco.
— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) November 19, 2013
Gregor is an acceptable option vs. RHP and I haven’t come across many people at all that are Negative Nellies about Blanco’s defense. Blanco should have another productive year in him for the Giants in 2014, even some regressing to a .320-.330 OBP vs. RHP will probably be acceptable as long as his defensive abilities hold. So that leaves the Giants searching all avenues for an outfielder. Since a “new everyday LF is doubtful,” that narrows the field to a lot of names we may not know very well or those that are lower cost players. Take a look at this MLBTR-created list of FA OF going into the off-season, and tell me what works for you. Keep in mind the Giants are looking for a RHH that can play defense.
Andres Torres? They done with him. Reed Johnson? Why not just sign Torres if you’re considering Johnson. Jerry Hairston can’t hurt anybody anymore. The Mariners released Jason Bay in August, so that’s how bad he was. Franklin Gutierrez (31 in February) has gained a fan club in Giants circles, and I can see some people are also thinking about a former Giant that was just playing in Canada in 33 year old Rajai Davis. Jeff Baker (32 years young), I’m going to hope you can play defense for many positions, so I will include you in this conversation. To the spreadsheets!
Players listed in alphabetical order:
Rajai Davis is the fastest, and will also add some swipes to your spreadsheet, so whatever you think of him after looking at these numbers, make sure you add the stolen bases. Gutierrez had 3 SB last year, Davis had 45. This stands to reason that Davis has the speed to cover the ground in LF, but he just needs to make quality routes and then can team up with Gregor Blanco to be an excellent tandem out in left. Jeff Baker and Franklin Gutierrez I’m less confident in to cover LF, much less Gutierrez to stay healthy for a full season, and I think that needs to be considered when you’re waving the flag of the Death to Flying Things camp.
I don’t know, either.
Two players with an OBP higher than 38, that’s pretty attractive, if you ask me. So only one of them has the power to hit dingers on a consistent basis, we don’t even know if Baker can handle a season playing LF. So in the Free Agent pool, I think you can see that my vote goes for Davis, with Baker second, and the unhealthy Gutierrez third. I mean, I love that Roger Kieschnick or Gary Brown would get a chance to play and everything, but I’m not so confident in those back-up options that I’m willing to take that big gamble on Gutierrez. That’s just one fan’s opinion though.
Agree or disagree with me in the comments section below or on the whatever social media I’m on dot com.
Yesterday the counts for the American League were released, and so today the home National League’s vote count is out to the people where you can view here. Some facts and reactions:
NL @allstargame voting leaders:1B: Votto2B: Phillips3B: SandovalSS: TulowitzkiC: PoseyOF: J. Upton OF: Harper OF: Braun
— MLB (@MLB) June 4, 2013
Surprises for me are Pablo Sandoval at third, Bryce Harper gets the celebrity vote, as you could argue Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, and Shin-Soo Choo are among those more deserving with the stats, but I’ll let that slide.
Posey leads all NL with 1,275,956 votes, J. Upton is second w/ 1,184,249. Upton leads all OFs. Would be 1st fan selection for 2-time AllStar — David O’Brien (@ajcbraves) June 4, 2013
Buster Posey is the story of the day with the amount of votes he’s getting, but he’s not blowing away the competition.
— Alex Pavlovic (@AlexPavlovic) June 4, 2013
Brandon Crawford is about 350,000 votes behind Troy Tulowitzki, Brandon Belt is about 500,000 behind Joey Votto, and Marco Scutaro is 200,000 behind Brandon Phillips. I really feel like Matt Carpenter needs to be getting more of a look, as he’s quietly put up a pretty valuable year.
Giants fans vote a lot. Belt 2nd, Scutaro 2nd, Sandoval 1st, Crawford 2nd, Posey 1st; Pence 6th, Pagan 8th, Blanco 11th in OF
— Eric Stephen (@truebluela) June 4, 2013
The challenge for other clubs is can they get their fanbase to vote their one guy (for the Brewers two guys) in to out do what the Giants fans are doing for all their outfielders.
This will be a real test for Giant fans — to see how many unworthy players they can vote into the starting lineup
— Ray Ratto (@RattoCSN) June 4, 2013
Right now, I’d say Posey is the only ASG starter I could argue that the Giants have. Yadier Molina winning that over Buster would not be a problem by me, he’s really good as well. We saw what Giants fans did last year, voting in Melky Cabrera in addition to Panda and Posey, and Matt Cain took the bump for the NL. There were many unhappy within the NL, although the NL would end up winning, with the Giants players providing plenty of production, in a shutout victory over the American League, giving the Giants of all teams home field advantage in the 2012 World Series.
The 2013 All-Star Game will be played at Citi Field, home of the New York Mets, on Tuesday, July 16.
Tim Lincecum took the mound for the Giants on an Orange Friday at the yard, as the tied for first place in the NL West Rockies and Giants squared off for a good old fashioned nine inning baseball game. If you missed the game, let me
mislead tell you about some of the things that happened.
Here’s some evidence of the good pitches that Lincecum threw
Tyler Chatwood was SO unsuccessful on this butcher boy attempt and the runner at first would get doubled off for a double play. Nice try, Colorado!
Yerrrrrrrr out, Toddy!
Nolan Arenado was showing off tonight playing defense. Quite good, this young fella!
But Brandon Crawford is always there to help out with a double play.
Yea! Go Giants!
Every fan has their own strategy for voting for choosing whom they would like to don the All Star patches in New York in July. The strategies I know of are:
- Voting for the statistically best on both leagues (usually that’s pretty subjective though)
- Voting for the best in the league of the team you support, voting for the worst on the other league
- Voting for the players you want to see play
- Voting for only your team in one league, and then a variety of choices for the other league (e.g., just the Astros, nobody, etc.)
Of course, every team wants you to vote for their players, so now for Giants fans that want to justify their all-Giants ballot, how will you do that from a statistical point of view? All stats are within the context of their position within the National League:
- Buster Posey: tied for the NL lead in fWAR (1.8), leads in OBP, wOBA, wRC+. Possibly the easiest vote for the ballot within the Champs’ roster.
- Brandon Belt: According to Fangraphs fielding value, is the very best. Also, number of baby giraffe hats to other headgear of NL 1B very much in favor of Belt.
- Marco Scutaro: Leads in highest BABIP, lowest K%, AVG, Contact% (making contact with the pitch — 95.3), lowest rate of swinging strikes (1.4%)
- Brandon Crawford: Tied for having the highest positional value on Fangraphs. Most handsome.
- Pablo Sandoval: T-most HR (8), leads in RBI (see if you can sneak this one past somebody), AVG, WPA all despite seeing the lowest ratio of pitches in the strike zone.
- Gregor Blanco: Because he makes great catches in the outfield to save the game, that’s why you vote him in. You may also use the fact that he’s been much better than replacement level overall this year
- Angel Pagan: Makes the highest rate of contact on balls outside of the strike zone. Also could have the best hair of all NL center fielders.
- Hunter Pence: T-most SB (8), has seven dingers, and his defense hasn’t been all that bad.
I’m just glad I did this with the Giants and not some really awful team. Pitchers get selected by people that wear the uniform, except for that Final Vote stage. Even if you’re not voting for the Giants, and voting for the best in the NL, they still have some pretty good options to choose from. Maybe I’ll do a blog post on that someday.
Last night was a nightmare for Andres Torres and his fans after he whiffed on a soft line drive to him in the 4th inning, Barry Zito couldn’t get back on track, and the Padres were leading the Giants 6-5, putting up that many runs in that fourth inning. Painful, so very painful, and that doesn’t even include the grounder to Marco Scutaro that you’d expect would have started a 4-6-3 sending the game to the 13th inning. This leaves us wondering why Gregor Blanco never played last night, how long Torres stays with the big club, and some calling for Casper Wells to be had by the Giants after he was DFA’d by the Athletics. Thank goodness Jean Machi was able to throw 3 innings last night to save Sergio Romo or Jose Mijares from doing more work than they needed to, but certainly Ryan Vogelsong will probably be given a little bit longer of a rope today, even though the bullpen is still relatively well rested.
The lineup for the visitors:
Sunday’s #SFGiants lineup: Pagan CF, Scutaro 2B, Sandoval 3B, Posey C, Pence RF, Belt 1B, Blanco LF, Crawford SS, Vogelsong RHP
— Alex Pavlovic (@AlexPavlovic) April 28, 2013
Giants fans everywhere relieved to see Gregor Blanco in the lineup even though it’s a righty on the mound and he should be in the lineup.
How it lines up for the home team looking to sweep:
#Padres lineup: SS Cabrera, RF Venable, 3B Headley, 1B Alonso, LF Blanks, 2B Gyorko, CF Amarista, C Hundley, P Marquis.
— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) April 28, 2013
You will probably hear a bit about how pitcher Jason Marquis has a 2.94 career ERA against the Giants that goes all the way back to 2001. He had a 2.03 ERA against them last year in 13.1 IP, so you might hear the word “ownage” tossed around on the broadcast. Neither Ryan Vogelsong or Padres starter Jason Marquis have faced the Giants this year, although Vogelsong got to see the Padres four times last year and in 22.0 IP he sported a 2.05 ERA, 21 K’s, 6 BB, but we’re still kind of wondering what Vogey we’re getting this year after some inconsistencies and bad luck hurt his box score. Vogelsong has lasted seven innings in each of his last two starts. I’m sure the Giants would be more than happy with that, especially as they get ready to go to Phoenix to play the Diamondbacks on Monday for a three-game set there.
Looking at the four game losing streak, people are going to have questions for certain stats that are pretty telling for why a team lost a game. The stats for each game of the stretch:
Errors: 3 (Crawford, Sandoval, Belt), 1 (Scutaro), 0, 2 (Torres, Scutaro)
Team LOB: 7, 10, 6, 5
RISP: 2-for-9, 0-for-10, 0-for-5, 3-for-7
The Giants have also scored first in three straight games, but haven’t been able to hold on, so like Scutaro was saying yesterday, the team is having trouble getting the offense, defense, and pitching in sync right now, and I’d say that’s a fair analysis, although plenty of positive signs with the bats yesterday. Hopefully that continues today against Marquis and the Padres.
Game time is 1:10PM PST, MLB.tv is having a free preview day, so as long as you’re not in the respective team’s markets, you should be able to catch the game for free today.
For those that have been off social media or the San Francisco Giants home website, the Giants, along with a slew of other teams, have avoided salary arbitration with some of their players, all of them one-year deals announced today, for SF at least. Every year, fans go through a period of confusion as to what all this salary arbitration means. Plenty assume that avoiding salary arbitration means that a team has kept a player from signing with another team. However, avoiding salary arbitration is not the same thing as free agency. For more extensive reading on it, I’ll direct you here. If you follow Henry Schulman on Twitter, you’ve seen he’s been pretty good about being civil in educating them on the process. What you need to know is this: the players listed are due raises from what their 2012 salary was, and guys with names like Pence and Posey are probably going to see bigger raises than Mijares and Blanco, in terms of the dollars. Also consider that since Pence has been around longer as a bigger name, his salary will be more substantial. To put it in Hank’s words, with my own added emphasis: “Player$ love thi$ proce$$.” I’ll list the players, their service time, their 2012 salary, then their 2013 salary for you.
Hunter Pence — 5.156 years, $10.4MM in ’12, $13.8MM in ’13
Buster Posey — 2.161 years, $615K in ’12, $8MM in ’13
Jose Mijares — 4.024 years, $925K in ’12, $1.8MM in ’13
Gregor Blanco — 2.164 years, $516K in ’12, $1.35MM in ’13
The remaining Giants left to deal with are:
Sergio Romo — 4.097 years, $1.575MM ’12
Update: Romo and the Giants have exchanged numbers for the other side to look at. Romo’s side has filed $4.5MM, and the Giants have filed $2.675MM.
Joaquin Arias — 3.071, ?? in ’12
This has predictably opened up a conversation about a long-term contract with Buster Posey, and there are plenty of options: year-to-year, buy out the rest of his arbitration years (through 2016), super long-term deal that buys out some of his free agent years at a high price. The Giants and Posey’s camp have expressed interest in a long-term deal, but it remains to be seen if something gets done.
As this Alden Gonzalez article mentions, the Giants and Romo+Arias have until February to get something worked out, and both sides would really rather not go to arbitration court since some not nice things can be said and feelings could get hurt. Sometimes, sides can agree on something at the last minute, like when the Giants and Tim Lincecum did right before a hearing once upon a time.
My numbers might be different than other people’s, but I have the Giants 2013 payroll commitments at $133,149,999.66 between 17 players, 16 of them active for the Giants (Huff being the odd man out). Larry Baer has said they’re looking to be closer to $140MM, and they’re on track for that.
To celebrate the seventh World Series title by the Giants — five happening in New York and two now in The City by the Bay — I thought we’d look at the best seven moves before and within the 2012 baseball season. You’ll probably have your own list, the rankings being a little different than mine, perhaps. I’ll start backwards from the honorable mentions, then from number seven and move on to what I see as move number one.
Honorable Mention (in no particular order)
Skipping Madison Bumgarner’s NLCS start
Jose Mijares pickup
Finally giving Belt a chance
“Closer by committee”
Extending control of Matt Cain
#7 — The Spring Training Invites
Namely, that of Gregor Blanco and Joaquin Arias, two guys that were merely names on a roster for those of us looking at the invitees, and admittedly, not taking them very seriously. This team would not have been the same though without these guys in 2012. Gregor Blanco replacing Melky Cabrera, Joaquin Arias being a decent replacement for when Pablo was out and Crawford was struggling. Both of these guys also have highlights where they have been immortalized into Matt Cain’s perfect game: Gregor Blanco’s diving catch which not many other people make, and Joaquin Arias fielding the final out with that shuffle to his right and then gunning it over to Belt for the end of that wonderful game.
#6 — Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera
So Melky Cabrera wasn’t a part of the last third of the baseball season, but maybe more importantly Jonathan Sanchez was not a part of the Giants rotation this season. How long would the Giants have put up with Dirty in the rotation or in the bullpen before possibly dumping him for nothing? Jonathan Sanchez became the problem of the Royals, then the Rockies. It wouldn’t be fair to say Dirty’s horrible performances for both squads would have been exactly the same for the Giants, but some had a feeling the intangibles would start to catch up with him. He will always have his part in 2010 lore, but like our next subject was for his old team, it was time for Jonathan Sanchez to go.
Angel Pagan had worn out his welcome in New York, and to give them two 2010 heroes for someone they wanted out seemed like a fair deal for both squads. Angel Pagan with his sometimes odd routes to the ball, had his contract year, and Andres Torres played like 2011 Andres with Ramon Ramirez being much less effective than during his time with his previous three clubs. Sometimes a change of scenery can do good for a player, and for Angel Pagan, I think it’s fair to say it worked out here.
#4 — Setting of the 25-man roster at the beginning, and the end of the regular season
People worried at both the beginning and end of the season that the rosters would not utilize all the talent an MLB roster had to offer, and the Giants much to the relief of bloggers, felt the same way we did in who was the best 25. There was a feeling that the best 25 were on the roster when all was said and done at both the beginning and end of the season, with the only question mark being Melky Cabrera. If we had it my way (boy that sounds snobby), Melky would’ve been on the bench at the very least, but I’m not going to go on a criticizing spree since everything worked out.
#3 — Signing Ryan Vogelsong to an affordable 2-year contract with a 3rd year option
Two years and eight million, with a $6.5MM option for a third year to the deal or a $300K buyout for Vogey. Taking a gamble on the Rally Enchiladas has been good since 2011, and if he keeps this up, he will be an even bigger steal of a pitcher. Here are some names that had worse ERA and FIP than Ryan Vogelsong in 2012: Tim Hudson, C.J. Wilson, Yovani Gallardo, and Edwin Jackson to name a few. All four are names you’d rather not go up against, and all four are getting Paid. I guarantee Ryan Vogelsong would cost more than $5MM for 2013 if the Giants had only gone one year on him going into 2012.
#2 — Putting Tim Lincecum in the bullpen
This could be a potentially ground-breaking move for the Giants, since Timmy could not really find his stuff in 2012 but in the Postseason all of a sudden the Cy came back. The Giants unfortunately really don’t have a candidate in-house to take Timmy’s spot in the rotation right away and $22.25MM is a lot to pay for a super-reliever, but if that’s what it takes to get him back, I believe he can still have incredible value easily leading the league in games appeared.
Sure Jonathan Mayo loves Culberson, but most people don’t love him enough to say he will definitely be the everyday infielder for the Giants, and thus, Sabean and co. made what ended up being the trade of 2012. Dodger fans mocked the deal, thinking that Sabean reacted to the Dodgers making a blockbuster trade of their own. You don’t just do trades to do them, the Giants clearly had a hole at 2B, and Scutaro was one of those “lightning in a bottle” candidates for the Giants. For now, the crow on the plates of Dodger fans in their mouths is hot and fresh, and “Blockbuster” helped carry the Giants to their second title in three years.
Sorry I couldn’t put this in slideshow format if that’s your thing. Feel free to put your top 7 in the comments or tell me on the twitter or FB or whatever!
The Season Series
May 16th — St. Louis 4, San Francisco 1 (AT&T Park)
May 17th — San Francisco 7, St. Louis 5 (AT&T Park)
August 6th — St. Louis 8, San Francisco 2 (Busch Stadium)
August 7th — San Francisco 4, St. Louis 2 (Busch Stadium)
August 8th — San Francisco 15, St. Louis 0 (Busch Stadium)
August 9th — St. Louis 3, San Francisco 1 (Busch Stadium)
The Cardinals were one strike away from being done. Again. Then Yadier Molina took two balls for a walk. Then they were down to their last strike on three pitches, once again. Then David Freese, Postseason Immortal, took three balls to load the bases. Daniel Descalso singled on the next pitch, and all of a sudden, Drew Storen and the Nats found themselves clinging for their lives, and after Pete Kozma took two quick strikes, then two balls, singled in Freese and Descalso. The Nationals couldn’t rally, and the Giants headed home as the Cardinals champagned themselves in Washington. Carlos Beltran tweeted that the Cardinals got to San Francisco around 6:00AM PST this morning and will have the day off while the Giants have an afternoon workout on tap.
Sunday: Game 1, 5:15PM PST, FOX: RHP Lance Lynn vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner
Postseason Performance: Lynn relieved and threw in 4 G, 3.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K’s. MadBum started Game 2, threw 4.1 innings, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K’s. My fear is that Bumgarner is fatigued, and he will get a chance to show he’s not, likely in two starts because sweeping this St. Louis team is very unlikely in my opinion.
Monday: Game 2, 5:07PM PST, FOX: RHP Chris Carpenter vs. RHP Ryan Vogelsong
NLDS performance: Carpenter started and surrendered 7 H in 5.2 IP, 2 BB, threw 2 K’s, but saw no runs cross the plate in his start. Vogey threw in Game 3 and despite a slow start, pitched 5 innings, gave up only 3 H, 3 BB, K’d 5, and only 1 crossed the plate in their extra inning thriller. Carpenter just came back, so it must be nice for the Cardinals to have a relatively fresh arm on their staff in October.
Wednesday: Game 3, 1:07PM PST, FOX: RHP Matt Cain vs. RHP Kyle Lohse
With Wainwright throwing only 53 pitches on Friday, I’m speculating he’ll get the call here and push Lohse to Game 4. Nevermind that.
NLDS performance: Matt Cain started twice, but never got past the 6th inning, going 10.2 IP, giving up 11 H, watching 6 ER cross the plate, while walking 3, and striking out 9. Lohse has been a key to keeping his team in the game to advance past the Braves and the Nationals, striking out 11, walking 2, and surrendering 8 hits in 12.2 IP.
Thursday: Game 4, 5:07PM PST, FOX: RHP Tim Lincecum vs. RHP Adam Wainwright
Postseason performance: Lincecum struck out 8 in 6.1 IP, and not walking anyone in his two appearances while Wainwright was great in Game 1, but left it up in Game 5 and left early and if he continues to do that, he will get punished even by the less powerful Giants offense.
*Friday: Game 5, 5:07PM PST, FOX: LHP Madison Bumgarner vs. RHP Lance Lynn
*Sunday, October 21st: Game 6, 1:45PM PST, FOX: RHP Chris Carpenter vs. RHP Ryan Vogelsong
*Monday, October 22nd: Game 7: 5:07PM PST, FOX: RHP Adam Wainwright vs. RHP Kyle Lohse
* — if necessary
Playoff Offense: Cardinals — 38 runs, 50 hits in 6 G, Giants — 18 runs, 32 hits in 5 G
Averaging more than 6 runs/game, and 8 hits/game, you’d think the Cardinals had just squared off against the Rockies in Coors Field, but instead they took it to two different playoff teams from the NL East and hit. That’s pretty intimidating considering the Giants really didn’t until their last two games. As for the players that did work, Carlos Beltran (2 HR, .409/.500/.818 in 22 AB) will be the player everyone types “should of” so much that the joke will get old, especially after his 30+ HR, 10+ SB season. Allen Craig has been getting his as well, posting a .348/.444/.609 in 23 AB while manning the 1B spot. Then there’s the infamous David Freese, whose .381/.440/.524 in 21 AB who always seems to be doing something positive for the Cardinals. These three hold the 2, 4, and 6 spots in the lineup, respectively, so you can understand how the Cardinals have been scoring as many runs as they have. On the other side of the pillow has been Yadier Molina, NL MVP vote-getter, and remarkably cold, with a .095/.296/.095 line in 21 AB and leadoff hitter Jon Jay, going .167/.222/.250 in 24 AB. I don’t expect them to stay down forever.
The Giants had only three guys get on base over 30% of the time, and while the Cardinals had five, the Giants highest OBP guy in the playoffs, Gregor Blanco (.375) would rank fifth on the Cardinals for OBP, so needless to say, the Giants don’t necessarily have hitters that are as “hot” to the degree that the Cardinals have been. I like to think the Reds pitched better than the Nationals though, or at least I hope so. Back to Blanco in his 14 AB, he went .286/.375/.571 with his 1 HR included, and Pablo actually had a higher AVG than OBP in his 21 AB with a .333/.318/.571 thanks in large part to his sac fly. Angel Pagan (.150/.217/.350 in 20 AB) and Marco Scutaro (.150/.227/.200 in 20 AB), whose NLDS numbers are overall pretty unattractive started to hit again as the series started to end, so hopefully that rise in hitting will continue against St. Louis.
Their Bullpen is on Fire
St. Louis has Trevor Rosenthal (97.6), Jason Motte (96.8), Mitchell Boggs (95.8), and Joe Kelly (94.4) that all have high velocity stuff, so the Giants go from facing one good bullpen from Cincinnati to a hard throwing one in St. Louis. If those guys can locate, watch out.
The Giants are likely to be billed as the underdog, but the Giants have proved before they can score runs… at least when they leave AT&T Park.
Game 1: Cardinals win (Bumgarner unable to adjust, Cards mash)
Game 2: Giants win (Vogelsong vintage as Carpenter makes enough mistakes for Giants to win)
Game 3: Cardinals win (Cain still struggling)
Game 4: Giants win (Timmy throws a gem)
Game 5: Giants win (Bumgarner gets his revenge)
Game 6: Giants win (Cards still have trouble with Vogelsong as bullpen slams the door, but not without some of that classic torture)
Should be a wild series, and the fun starts tomorrow.