Results tagged ‘ Miami Marlins ’

Marlins “won’t forget” Dom Brown’s celebration, will probably hit him

Domonic Brown has been on a tear of late, winning two consecutive Player of the Week awards, a Player of the Month award for May, thanks in part to a twelve homer May and he hasn’t been slowing down this month, either. Yesterday he hit this bomb (make sure you pay attention to the end of the video):

As you can see, even in slow motion, it’s confusing whether Brown is going back to the dugout, or to first base, and the bat flip — the bat flip — it was one that celebrates homers, for sure. The Marlins, not ones to disappoint, have brought about some bulletin board material:

Hooray. So because Brown celebrated in a manner that some deemed excessive, the Marlins might throw at the 26 25 year old. Hopefully, the umpiring crew takes control of the matter by warning both benches beforehand and stopping any intentional violence towards a hitter in the first place. All it takes is one HBP to the head for things to become awful, and all because the Marlins had their feelings hurt by a celebration. You wanna stop the celebration, Miami? How about you stop making mistakes up and away from the intended location and start executing your pitches to their target around home plate where your catcher is setting it, not at another human being. Immature and pathetic, in my opinion, but I know there are others that feel this is necessary. Clearly, I disagree with that school of thought.

The Marlins, the White Sox, the wRC+

If you hang out on the internet long enough, you get to observe conversations between between people. Many people. The internet is a beautiful thing because it connects me to so many people that have such a variety of knowledge of different things. This is what I observed today

They were talking about the weighted runs created plus (wRC+) stat after Cameron had mentioned that the Astros were 8th this year. The link takes you to the Fangraphs page where it describes wRC+ better than I probably can, and to summarize it, the stat tries to measure a player’s production in runs, where 100 is league average, and every point above/below it is one percent better/worse than that. The page notes that wRC+ is also park-adjusted so you may compare players (and a group of players — a team) across eras. This is relevant to the discussion at hand because the 2013 Miami Marlins come up. I wanted to check out how “historically terrible” this Marlins number was. Their number is 59, so 41% less runs created than league average. That sounds pretty bad, and the closest to them are the White Sox at 74, the Cubs at 81.

I decided to stretch the time back to the year 1900 since the seasons by then were longer than they were in recorded organized baseball’s earliest days. I wasn’t sure if it was fair to include the 1884 Brewers that had a wRC+ of -100 in 109 combined games (not to mean they played 109 games, but that if, for example, ten players played in one game, that would mean one game totaled ten games on this stat sheet). But in the worst twenty wRC+ numbers in baseball history since 1900, the Marlins have the lowest number, with the 1920 Philadelphia Athletics next in line at 66. Interesting that the White Sox crack the bottom twenty tied at number 17! Before the Marlins and White Sox were able to make this bottom twenty list (or tied for a place in it), the 2004 Diamondbacks but up a dismal 74, and then there was a four decade break between that and the 1964 Colt .45′s whom are tied for the eleventh at a wRC+ of 73 (actually repeating their number from the previous year).

So, yes, the Marlins wRC+ is historically bad, even more so than the White Sox. The Marlins wOBA is also historically bad (worst again at .258), and I tried to find players I knew with a wOBA of .258 but it’s full of position players I’ve never heard of.

It’s only April 25th, though. Maybe the Marlins will get better and get out of that historically bad hole, or maybe wRC+ will end up dubbing them history’s greatest monster.

Baby Fish GIFs: Jose Fernandez Makes His MLB Debut with Marlins

The Miami Marlins surprised some folks by announcing Jose Fernandez would make his first start… in the week of games for the Fish, and would be slotted as their #5, their first game netting the Metropolitans of New York. A lot of people, myself included, have not had the chance to see Fernandez pitch, whether it be in Spring Training, or in Minor League games. A quick look at the scouting report from Baseball Prospectus gives us this:

Screen shot 2013-04-07 at 7.08.32 PM

Even if you don’t want to read all that, what you take from it is good fastball and curveball, with a changeup that’s may need to be improved upon a little bit.

Fernandez squared up against the Mets, and in five innings, he had eight strikeouts, one walk, and amongst the few hits allowed, saw one double go down the line for his only earned run of the game, all this on eighty pitches. He will be on a 170 IP limit this year, so as long as things don’t go too poorly, we should be seeing him through August to mid-September. All in all today, he threw 51 fastballs, 18 curveballs, 5 each of changeups and sliders, and one cutter that was pretty far off the plate. Ten swings and misses all told, and I’ve done some GIFing for you to see what he did today.

Fastball – the stuff ran from 93-98 today, and while he may not have hit his spot each time, when you throw that hard, you have margin for error. When I watched him, when he missed, he either missed up, or movement made him miss towards the right handed hitter’s box.

Curveball – killer movement towards the RHH box that makes you think it’s coming right at you, and then the hammer just drops on you. Great pitch, just has to make sure he’s able to really read what the opposition is doing, as hitters seemed to be waiting on it as the game progressed.

Changeup – what a treat it would be if he can count on this pitch to do damage for him. Sitting 85-87, that’s around an 8-11 MPH difference from the fastball, and with movement away from a lefty.

Slider – same horizontal movement, but less vertical drop on this pitch, and when it’s coming at quicker than 80, well that’s just a little unfair for anybody.

It’s always exciting to watch a hyped rookie’s first start in the bigs, and Fernandez did a good job, even though he only went five innings. It’s easy to fall in love with that fastball, and that sexy set of breaking balls. I really, really think that if that changeup can come around, this kid could be amazing. Having three pitches to count on already though, is pretty freakin’ good.

The NL East Season Preview: Where Dynasties Live

The regular season begins this Sunday at 5:05PM PST when the Texas Rangers play the Houston Astros in that famous AL West rivalry, which means this week is all about previews, bold predictions, and message board put downs. I will say I am not good at predicting things, so let’s get that straight. Like everybody else though, I have an opinion on the matter of how events will play out. As I preview these divisions, I’ll tell you a little of what sport betting sites see, what computer simulations see, and what I see. The teams will be previewed in the reverse order I expect them to finish. Let us preview the NL East, where in my lifetime, I’ve really only seen the Braves (’94-’05) and Phillies (’07-’11) rule the NL East in its “new” format. Now, a new horse has arrived, it’s young, and it’s also got better competition this year.

5. Miami Marlins

Bovada’s odds to win the division, pennant, and World Series: 40/1, 75/1, 200/1

PECOTA’s projected three highest Wins Above Replacement Player for 2013: Giancarlo Stanton (4.9), Justin Ruggiano (2.2), Ricky Nolasco (2.1)

Stuart sees: a snake occupying the owner’s box, leaving a city the bill to a stadium with an eyesore out in left-center, along with a trade of major leaguers Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and Emilio Bonifacio who were all sent north of the border because it just didn’t work out. Maybe you can find a little sympathy in your heart for that kind of business, I’m having trouble with it. The fish are left with Nolasco as their ace with not much behind him, and Stanton as the guy they’re supposedly building around. The bullpen might be the most well-rounded part of the team, but I wonder how this team scores its runs when Stanton’s not there. What lead will there be for the bullpen to hold? In case the only time you’ve seen Giancarlo is in the WBC, I’ve provided some memories from 2012 of the things he did. Worth your time.

4. New York Mets

Bovada’s odds to win the division, pennant, and World Series: 15/1, 40/1, 100/1

PECOTA’s projected three four highest Wins Above Replacement Player for 2013: David Wright (3.9), Shaun Marcum (2.6), Daniel Murphy and Matt Harvey (2.5)

Stuart sees: a team that is getting ready to put its bullets into its Major League gun, and they are going to hit the mound and shut down the opposition. That may be seen even as early as June when Zack Wheeler will likely get the promotion to join former prospect Harvey on the hill. Marcum, like Johan Santana, is already injured, so it’s hard to see the Mets starting corps providing much for their team outside of Harvey. The offense will need to pick it up until their starters have their health back, and 2B Daniel Murphy is on the comeback trail to getting healthy again, and Ike Davis can supply some power for this squad. The outfield is kind of a nightmare, and with John Buck behind the plate, Mets fans are also counting down the days to when they see prospect Travis d’Arnaud come up in June so they can see part of the fruits of that trade for R.A. Dickey. If this team starts hot, they could be a very real threat for a wild card spot, but I’m talking 45-days hot, not 1-week hot.

3. Philadelphia Phillies

Bovada’s odds to win the division, pennant, and World Series: 3/1, 7/1, 16/1

PECOTA’s projected three highest Wins Above Replacement Player for 2013: Cliff Lee (4.2), Roy Halladay (3.9), Cole Hamels (3.6)

Stuart sees: a walking AARP commercial unfolding in front of everybody’s eyes. Halladay is starting to show his age with decreasing velocity (although that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s done), and possibly being on the road to getting lit up more often. The acquisition of Michael Young seemed to be one built off of intangibles, and Delmon Young just plays like he’s old when he’s in the outfield. On the offensive side of things, this team should be fine, hitting some homers here and there, Philadelphia fans do have their reasons to believe in this team (not much of it on defense, though). I wonder how long the John Lannan experiment as the 5 will go, but the bullpen does have a decent 8th-9th inning set of arms in Mike Adams and Jonathan Papelbon (only to be used in save situations, of course!). It’s easy to not like this team because of the way their general manager, Ruben Amaro, Jr. built it, but they can provide some healthy, spirited, and most importantly competent competition for their NL East brethren.

2. Atlanta Braves

Bovada’s odds to win the division, pennant, and World Series: 9/4, 7/1, 16/1

PECOTA’s projected three highest Wins Above Replacement Player for 2013: Jason Heyward (3.6), Justin Upton (3.4), B.J. Upton (3.1)

Stuart sees: a team that could rule the division if not for another great team standing in their way. Those top three guys all reside in the outfield, and we haven’t even mentioned SS Andrelton Simmons and Brian McCann, whom is starting to feel better. Braves fans may not be confident of the platoon they have going at the hot corner with Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson, and it’s easy to be disappointed when you had a Hall of Famer in Chipper Jones manning the position there for as long as he did. My question mark on this team is how well does the starting pitching do this year, as I’m not worried about their bullpen holding leads or keeping things close. Does Tim Hudson stay healthy, can Mike Minor keep batters in the park and continue to lower his walk rate? What about Julio Teheran, how ready is he to reaching that ceiling of a #2-3 starter that’s been put on him? Watch this team at the plate for a series and you’ll understand the threat these guys pose, they are not just a force, they are a force. (oooOOOooohhhhh)

1. Washington Nationals

Bovada’s odds to win the division, pennant, and World Series: 10/11, 7/2, 7/1

PECOTA’s projected three four highest Wins Above Replacement Player for 2013: Stephen Strasburg (4.8), Ryan Zimmerman (4.0), Jayson Werth and Dan Haren (3.1)

Stuart sees: a team that you will be describing using any and every positive/fear-inducing adjective and profane word in the book. Now that this team has brought their town an NL East title in 2012, their extraordinarily powerful lineup, along with newly acquired speedster Denard Span, are going to put up some pretty good numbers (hint hint, fantasy baseball players) and work on creating that dynasty within the NL East. Bryce Harper just got done being nineteen (that’s 19, as in, my college freshman+sophomore years you know what, I don’t wanna talk about it), Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann are also pretty stinkin’ good, and that bullpen added Rafael Soriano because I guess they wanted to make Drew Storen feel really bad. My question marks for this team are Dan Haren, who has been not been pitching as well as the years have gone by (getting old will do that… along with lower velocity), and the part of the bullpen that doesn’t involve Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Soriano. Outside of that, you can see why they’ve got the best odds to win everything. This team… I mean… Man. (how ’bout that analysis right there)

If there’s something not going for them though, it’s definitely this (couldn’t find a more out of control picture, I know it’s out there though):

Screen shot 2013-03-25 at 6.09.58 PM

Tell me how you think the NL East standings fall out in the comments below, and remember to play nice!

2013 Marlins May Be Trying to Beat 2006 Record

The Marlins have sent shockwaves the size of their controversial stadium throughout the baseball world, and per Ken Rosenthal, they may not be done:

 

Fantastic! There’s only one reason why he could be dealt:

 

He’s owed money in 2013, and not just the Greg Dobbs money, but eight-digit money, and that could lead to him packing his bags to go elsewhere. So he’s owed $11.5MM, then the rest of the roster gets at least $500K so the very minimum roster salary could be around $23.5MM with that mindset. If Nolasco is traded though, the Marlins could near a record they set in 2006: the lowest payroll within the years I searched. Here are some teams and their below-$40MM payrolls in the past few years:

 

Look at all of those Florida-based teams! If the Marlins are going full fire sale, I don’t see why they hold on to Nolasco, so big seven-digit contracts to Jacob Turner and Greg Dobbs could really push the Marlins towards the $20MM mark. Yes, gasp you should! How will the Marlins win the NL East in 2013 like some people thought they could? Short answer: don’t worry about it, they won’t. Now you may return to all the Loria-bashing going on tonight until we hear about the trade being confirmed tomorrow and then we can look forward to Nolasco getting traded.

Twitter Reactions: Miami Becomes Toronto South in Blockbuster

Unbelievable. Fire sale. Betrayal. Whatever you want to call it, a trade of epic proportions happened. The universal emotion could be summed up in understandable anger and/or embarrassment. You didn’t come here for me though.

The first big name reaction came from superstar Giancarlo Stanton:

 

This led to a slew of people demanding their team trade for Stanton. Please. That won’t happen… for a couple years. Next, new ace Ricky Nolasco:

 

Pretty much what we were saying, too.

 

May just be a bad couple days not to have one since this deal won’t be official until tomorrow, apparently.

 

Yea, Joey Bats feelin’ good. He should be feelin’ good because look at that rotation he’ll get to play behind:

 

Pretty good rotation in a normally tough AL East. Here’s Bryce Harper telling Mr. Stanton everything will be alright  if he played for an organization that didn’t have fire sale tendencies:

 

Beat writer for the Marlins Juan Rodriguez letting us know the Marlins are supplying some relief to the Jays:

 

 

Phew! Now the Blue Jays are only on the hook for… more than $150MM. The overall picture of the trade:

 

We’re getting spoiled with these blockbuster trades involving long-term deals after the first year we’re going to be feeling something is missing next year if it doesn’t happen.

Don’t be surprised if this isn’t the last time some of the involved members in this trade get dealt again this offseason. It’s a good day to be a Blue Jay.

Three-Team Trade Thighliting Tlazy Tsaturday

Can’t even enjoy a Saturday eating out at a sushi place with my wife and her family and not have Billy Beane go all off-season on me. Since the press conferences haven’t been held yet, we don’t know where this all started, but after some waiting, we’ve come to know some of the terms of the deals along with the money exchanged. A trade between the Oakland A’s, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Miami Marlins took place today, and let’s talk about who got what:

The A’s Got: 

OF Chris Young (from the D-Backs)

$500,000 (from the D-Backs)

The Diamondbacks Got: 

IF Cliff Pennington (from the A’s) link goes straight to his splits versus other teams — look at his stats vs. the Giants!

RP Heath Bell (from the Marlins) link goes to his stats page on Fangraphs

$8,000,000 (from the Marlins)

The Marlins Got:

SS Prospect Yordy Cabrera (from the A’s)

Happier fans, for now

Early votes from the twittersphere suggest the A’s and Billy Beane have “won” this deal on paper, since they’re buying relatively low on Chris Young, while getting rid of Cliff Pennington (and having a healthier Stephen Drew on their roster already) and only parting with a very meh prospect, or “prospect” as some might call him. The “loser” of this trade is predictably being labeled the D-Backs because Heath Bell is fat, and the DBacks will pay him $6.5MM/year. The Marlins can now focus on being a much stronger team without Bell because Jeffrey Loria is a snake  no, not relevant people in Florida like baseball ugh no, not true. I don’t know.

I didn’t watch Heath Bell that much in 2012 so I can’t tell you what was wrong with him, but we do know he had a horrible start, although quietly had a finish that was much of what the Marlins signed him for. Maybe Arizona will get more of San Diego Heath Bell than Miami Heath Bell? That is to be seen. I think this deal with Bell could work out more for the DBacks than initial reactions suggest (but not to the point of being ecstatic that $6.5MM/yr is being designated to a 7th inning guy). To echo Diamondbacks fans though, if the DBacks think Pennington is their starting SS in 2013, there could be a lot of grumbling fans in the stands.

We wonder also about what the A’s do from here with their outfield of Chris Young, Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, and Coco Crisp. Got to imagine Billy Beane isn’t done dealing quite yet. If you can think of any teams that might need an outfielder this season, you can bet he’s thinking of that team as a potential trade partner. Oh look, the Giants need an outfielder in 2013 because we don’t know if Gary Brown will be ready at the start of the season. Only the front office really knows the answer to that right now. Stay tuned.

“We need to do something”: Reacting to a trade

Los Angeles has Hanley, but will they get any other big names?

Good Morning! Why did you go to sleep?

Last night may have been the most eventful night in some time in terms of baseball transactions, with Wandy Rodriguez being traded to the Pirates, Cole Hamels being signed to an incredible 6-year/$144MM extension, and then the cherry on top of Hanley Ramirez being shipped to the Dodgers. There are more pieces to the Pirates and the Dodgers deals, but I’m going to stick with the headliners because I don’t doubt you might have woken up today, and especially if you’re a Dodger/Giant fan you went “UUUWHHHHHHHATTTTTTTT???” which is pretty much the sound I made.

Which Hanley are the Dodgers getting?

The Hanley Ramirez the public will think of when we think of what he can do is the 2007-2010 Hanley Ramirez. In those years he put up 29, 33, 24, 21 HR; 51, 35, 27, 32 SB, an OBP of .386, .400, .410, .378; a wOBA of .411, .405, .410, .373; and an fWAR of 5.7, 7.5, 7.4, 4.6 if you’re into any of those stats.

In 2011 and 2012, we’ve seen somebody different, and granted he only played 92 G in 2011 so perhaps he should get cut some slack. The HR aren’t too bad with 10, 14; 20, 14 SB so he’s a little behind the normal pace this year; an OBP of .333, .322, which is a little concerning; wOBA of .317, .329 which repeats that concern; and an fWAR of 1.3, 1.4 which further drives home the point that he hasn’t been able to put forth what’s been expected of him.

Even if he magically bounces back to 2007-2010 Hanley due to meshing with the Dodgers clubhouse, he’s got 64 games in the regular season left with them, and you may see 10-12 more HR, and SB, maybe gets on base at a .370 clip, and gives the Dodgers maybe two or three extra wins in total (remember, 64 games left, not a larger number) than they would’ve had without him. Something of a close comparison may be the 2010 Matt Kemp that put up 28 HR, 19 SB, but a .310 OBP and a .323 wOBA — he’ll get big hits, but you can see there’s something more there and it will kill you that he’s not reaching that potential.

The consensus fear is that the Hanley of 2007-2010 shows up for the Dodgers. I believe the realistic expectation to kind of echo Wendy Thurm is 2011-2012 Hanley shows up this year, then wait and see what happens in 2013-2014, where he could return to form. He will still be good though, I’m not saying he will do nothing.

So how do we react?

Well, we take it in, and just go, “OK. The Dodgers have Hanley now.” This really shouldn’t change things for the front office because we’ve known all along the Dodgers would try to go big this season, and they might not be done in trying to get Ryan Dempster, and/or Shane Victorino, or maybe there’s other stuff out there we don’t know about (very real possibility). Therefore, the Giants knew before the Hanley deal they needed bullpen help, knew they’re trying to land someone that will help the team in 1B/RF. The only thing that changed because of last night’s Panda stretch is possibly the need for a 3B, especially if the position remains a black hole of hitting production. This deal doesn’t mean, “OHMYGAHH THE GIANTS NEED TO TRADE FOR ZACK GRINKY OR WHATEVR THAT GUYZ NAME IS… OR WHADDABOUT ELVIS ANDRUS FOR NATE SCHIERHOLTZ/?!!?” because really, with the Giants farm system (and wallet) being what it is, it’s not gonna happen.

So the Dodgers have Hanley and the Giants haven’t traded for anyone, OK. 6 days left in the non-waiver trade deadline and I’m sure you know we’ve acquired guys in August in the past as well, so getting an impact arm or bat isn’t out of the question. Relax, have fun speculating what it’ll mean, and enjoy these next couple of days from a trade deadline perspective. Just don’t panic, because if the front office isn’t panicking over that Hanley deal, why should you?

Quick Wrap for 5/25: #Marlins 7, #SFGiants 6

Tim Lincecum was fine for 4 innings really, then things started to not go his way. His velocity was at 92-94 for most of the night which was pretty dam impressive and nice to see. It would all eventually be undone with a 3 run HR to Chris Coghlan that made it 6-3 after the Marlins already rallied to tie the game up in the same inning. A pickoff throw to Belt that he missed ended up scoring the 7th and final run. The Giants chipped away near the end of the game scoring one in the 8th and 2 in the 9th off of pretty good situational hitting off of the Marlins bullpen. We had Brandon Crawford at 2nd with Melky coming up. Steve Cishek came in to close it out and here’s the AB for you in a pitch f/x graphic:

Melky struck out looking on that 6th pitch of a slider as Cishek was never able to get his fastballs close to the zone. He looked at the 5th pitch of a slider as well, but I gotta say that was an absolutely tough AB that Melky had. That 6th pitch was as borderline strike as borderline can get. Tip your cap, move on.

If you’re looking for goats (and after a loss, who isn’t?), you can have a bunch of people on your list like Crawford (out at 3rd), coaching staff (trusting Lincecum), Timmy (see: 5 run 6th), Belt (missed pickoff throw), Theriot (just cuz), and the list can go on and on. In a one-run game, you can point the finger a lot of ways, just don’t try telling me it’s any one person’s fault: they really lost as a team tonight, and didn’t have enough innings to come back over the Marlins.

By the way, Mike Stanton HR’d again today. Not really news, but he hit the tower of terror in LCF on a pitch I don’t think he got all of. Crazy good power, that kid. And we get to see him for 2 more games!

How About a Little Moderation, Miami?

JR

This bunter will take his talents to Miami

Remember when a year ago the running joke started with “I’m going to take my talents to Miami” or something along that line? Well, it’s coming back. The former Florida, now Miami Marlins have signed Heath Bell to an unreasonable 3 year, $27 million contract (breaking the unwritten rule of you should never sign a reliever to 3+ years and how about not paying for saves) and now tonight have announced a 6 year, $102MM contract with a guaranteed $4MM buyout option for the 7th year. And they’re not done yet. Lordie, they are not done yet because now we are hearing garbage like this:

And no one’s really saying otherwise, but there are people talking trash about the Marlins already. From:

To things like:

Loria being the owner of the Marlins. Now I’ve never owned a baseball team, nor will I probably ever at the Major League level at least. But life lessons can still be applied here. How about that lesson of “moderation?” “Too much of one thing isn’t a good thing” type of cliche where in this case the “one thing” is spending yourself blind. We’ve seen the Marlins go through firesales after winning 2 World Championships and now that they’re opening a new stadium with mostly public funds and probably also through the miracle that is revenue sharing, they have the cap space to go absolutely nuts this winter.

With Reyes now inked, they probably have around $60MM committed to 2012, before their arbitration eligibles. This leaves them room to still go for Albert and someone like Mark Buehrle and be around the $100MM mark which is a good competitive spot to be. Only problem is once the kids that are getting paid next to nothing (Stanton, LoMo, maybe even Bonafacio) start to grow older, so will their need for a raise. Even athletes like Josh Johnson will command more. What will Miami do then? Miami has now bought high on 2 guys, looking to go on 4. This could be very, very bad for them later and I have this feeling it will be. They’re going to be the new New York Mets, hard to say if they’ll be worse though. That’s for time to tell.

The Marlins aren’t going to change their game plan of an all-out attack this winter. They will be the big winners of the off-season with the biggest additions going into their newest stadium. I guess if there is one time to push the chips in for Miami it’s now, but they sure are taking a fattie gamble on their future while they’re at it. This is more than a publicity stunt, people. It’s happening, but don’t you worry: The Miami Marlins will get their comeuppance for this. Especially if they put together a farm-package to get Gio Gonzalez of the A’s. Short-term stuff because in the end, Florida hasn’t proven its worth as a baseball market and building a champion won’t happen overnight (right, Miami NBA fans?).

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