Results tagged ‘ Nate Schierholtz ’
As if having one awkward athlete wasn’t enough, the Giants, losers of five straight games, including the ugly-fest played last night, the Giants have traded for OF Hunter Pence and cash from the Philadelphia Phillies, who is reportedly on his way from Washington D.C. The Giants will give up OF Nate Schierholtz, and prospects Tommy Joseph, and RHP Seth Rosin.
Pence, 29, and under control through 2013 for one last arbitration year, is not known for his defensive abilities, but more for his bat as he is sporting a a .271/.336/.447 line with a .339 wOBA. 17 HR, 10 of those outside of his 2012 home ballpark of Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. In 20 G and 82 PA at AT&T Park, Hunter Pence has a .329/.366/.566 line with a 125 OPS+ with 5 HR over the course of his career. He’s batted the majority of his games in the 3rd and 4th slot this season with the Phils with more of them coming in the clean-up spot, but I’m not so sure that’s where Bochy will put him. Do you put Hunter 3rd and put switch hitter Melky in between him and Buster? Do you put Melky 2nd and FINALLY put someone like Theriot lower in the lineup? That awaits but my guess is it’ll go like this for now:
Going to the Philadelphia Phillies will be minor league catcher Tommy Joseph, ranked as the #5 catcher on MLB.com for the Giants organization, and hasn’t been doing too badly for Richmond (the AA affiliate) with the numbers, but you know who is blocking Joseph and sooner or later one of the catchers between him and Andrew Susac would be going. RHP Seth Rosin is also included on the deal and he’s been putting up good numbers as well in High-A San Jose, but is not one of the Giants’ top prospects. Doesn’t mean he can’t be good, just doesn’t project to be a big name like Tommy Joseph could be, in the opinion of some scouts.
Speculation only: Hunter Pence is already making 8 figures in 2012 ($10.4MM) and his last arbitration year in 2013 makes him due for another raise and that would take the Giants out of the market for any bigger names in the offseason. Should they not be comfortable with that, look for them to trade him for… something. #analysis
The Giants are still looking for a reliever, while the Dodgers have been busy loading up on guys like Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, and possibly Ryan Dempster, all without totally gutting their farm system like we hoped they would. The trade deadline is 1:00PM PST.
A new heart of the lineup comes into San Francisco this weekend wearing Dodger blue, so if this series doesn’t go as perfectly as the last one did, don’t be surprised. Their starting lineup isn’t the laughing stock it used to be, injuries are relatively healed, and although confidence may not be pouring from their pores, both teams know this series now has two lineups with a respectable set of beasts to deal with.
Friday, July 27th: RHP Stephen Fife vs. RHP Matt Cain
One sentence summary: Should be an interesting game for both teams, as an unfamiliar foe faces one whom has established his dominance as one of the better pitchers in baseball.
Saturday, July 28th: RHP Chad Billingsley vs. LHP Barry Zito
One sentence summary: Barry Zito facing RHH will be what to watch as those guys have a .338 wOBA against him as opposed to the .249 wOBA LHH have against him in 2012.
Sunday, July 29th: LHP Clayton Kershaw vs. RHP Ryan Vogelsong
One sentence summary: If it seems like Clayton Kershaw only gives up a couple of runs to the Giants, it’s because that’s what it is: the vast majority of Clayton Kershaw’s starts versus the good guys have seen him allow 0-2 runs, only once more with 4 ER (5/18/2011).
Neither of these offenses are really built to blow you away any day of the week, but each team has their guys that’s been doing their best to carry their offensive lineups. The Dodgers recently — and here you see the dangers of small sample size — have seen hotness from guys like Juan Uribe (.505 wOBA last 7, .243 wOBA overall), Adam Kennedy (.417, .292), and new guy Hanley Ramirez hasn’t been there long, but has had time to put up numbers in the past week as well (.522, .335). The boppers consist of the 3-4-5 guys in Matt Kemp (14 HR), Andre Ethier (11), and Hanley (14); the speed guys are Tony Gwynn (13 SB), and HanRam (15). Dee Gordon has 30, but he’s out right now.
In the four Game 3′s of their respective series after the AS Break, the Giants are 1-3, and those 3 losses are the only losses after the Kansas City festivities, so since they’re 9-3 in their last 12, you’d expect some of the guys to be doing quite well. Buster Posey’s been reminding everyone what a healthy Posey can do for you (.452 wOBA & 2 HR L7, .376 wOBA & 13 HR overall), Ryan Theriot has been showing you what he does (.444 & 2 SB, .295 & 11 SB), and Nate has been showing you he can be great (.434 & 2 HR, .319 wOBA overall). Melky (10 HR) has finally joined Buster in the double digit HR club, but with Pablo probably out for the weekend (and maybe more?), we might not see another member of the 10+ dong club ’til August. The four guys lighting some fire on the basepaths are Blanco and Pagan (both with 17 SBs), along with Melky and Theriot (11 SBs). Apparently Ryan has stolen 20+ in 4 different seasons, and right now is on pace for 18, so he’s someone to keep an eye on, especially if he stays in that #2 slot.
This series should provide for a lot more drama than the last one, and it’s a wonder if you might even see a whole new set of guys on Sunday in Dodger blue since we’re hearing the Dodgers are trying to land another bat AND another starter. Stay tuned on that one.
Friday: Giants win (Matt Cain doesn’t care about your new lineup)
Saturday: Giants win (Both offenses do unusual things like score many runs)
Sunday: Dodgers win (Clayton gets his as Giants can’t sweep another one)
Remember: No matter how this series goes, the Giants and Dodgers will still have 9 games left against each other, with 6 of them being in Los Angeles.
The Padres are 10 games into their post-ASG, having faced the Dodgers, Astros, and Rockies, and were 7-3 through those matchups they had. Speaking of the number 10, the Giants begin a 10 game homestand that includes the Padres, Dodgers, and Mets. The Giants have been pretty good taking things one game at a time since they came back from the break (or at least, most of their players have), so you hope they can continue to take care of business.
Monday, July 23rd: LHP Clayton Richard vs. RHP Ryan Vogelsong
One sentence summary: A guy that’s given up a homer in six straight games (Richards) versus a guy that’s given up a homer in three straight (Vogelsong); should be interesting to see if that trend continues.
Tuesday, July 24th: RHP Edinson Volquez vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner
One sentence summary: Volquez just one-hit the Astros, so you know the rule on that is he’s due to for huge amounts of regression in his next start versus the Gigantes.
Wednesday, July 25th: RHP Jason Marquis vs. RHP Tim Lincecum
One sentence summary: Another weak lineup for Timmy to face should be sweet music to everyone’s ears, and Jason Marquis has had trouble going deeper than 6 innings into a game this year.
Always always always take small sample sizes sorta not seriously, but you’ll probably hear about these guys because of the mythical “hot bat” and I’d think they are walking into AT&T with a little bit of confidence at the very least. Chris Denorfia (.488 wOBA, .545 BABIP in last 7; .349 wOBA, .339 BABIP overall) has been doing not so bad for the Padres, as has Everth Cabrera (.422 wOBA, 40% LD% L7; .322 wOBA, 18.9 LD% overall), but that whole Padres team has been happy to see some below-average MLB pitching recently. Carlos Quentin (.383 wOBA, 9 HR) has done well over the course of his short season, and Yasmani Grandal (.367 wOBA, 5 HR in 64 PA) not so bad himself in a shorter stint. Chase Headley (11 HR, 10 SB), Everth Cabrera (18 SB), and Cameron Maybin (20 SB) all provide some of the speed for the visitors.
The Giants have had their fair share of hitters doing well, with five hitters with over a .400 wOBA in the last seven days, with a minimum of 10 PA (see how small of a SS that is?), and I wonders if you can name them: Nate (.432 wOBA L7, .318 overall, 2 HR), Crawford (.434, .273, 2 HR), Arias (.452, .276), Posey (.497, .374), and Melky (.523, .397, 2 HR). How’d you do? Nate and Crawford certainly have been surprisingly awesome recently, and you hope they can keep that up, especially with regulars like Pagan (.207 wOBA L7, .319 wOBA overall), and Belt (.114 , .317) noticeably struggling.
The Giants hate sweeping a series, so why should they start now? Well, because it’s the Padres. But you don’t play these games on paper, people! Hoping for better than what I write down, but after the ASG break, I’m 9-0 in predicting games… so there’s another SSS for you.
Monday: Giants win (get used to seeing this lineup)
Tuesday: Padres win (MadBum gets Cain’d)
Wednesday: Giants win (Timmy loves him some San Diego cookin’)
The Giants got swept by the Nationals and could be a whole 1.5 games back of the Dodgers by the end of the day. The black and orange have lost 5 of their last 6, and the Giants are lucky it’s July before the break so that they have time to figure out what the heck they need to do. Here’s what I think some big complaints will be following tonight’s game:
#1: We have a closer problem
The people are right: we have a problem with the title “closer” because it’s a very flawed concept that is based off of the need to get saves, which is a stupid stat in and of itself for reasons I’m not going to dive into here. I personally do not know whom Bochy thinks is his best reliever is, but I know who it is and he bailed the Giants out of the 7th, and threw up a 0 for the 8th inning.
Here are some stats between Romo and Casilla coming into today’s game to help me prove my point for why Sergio is better than Santiago:
Even if you hate sabermetrics, I know you can see a difference in ERA, and K/9.
For those wondering how these two do versus left-handed hitters. Romo has been platooned by Bochy, but it’s not like that’s Romo’s fault. He does just fine, as you can see in his wOBA against.
Keep in mind you may not want to use your best reliever in the 9th, as the game might call for it in the 7th, like it did tonight. Too bad we don’t have two Sergios though we could’ve used the second one in the 9th.
#2: We lost because of Brandon Crawford, and Brandon Belt should’ve had that
To put the game on Brandon Crawford, while understandable in the moment, is pretty unfair. Should Brandon Belt have had that extremely low throw by Crawford? Yes. Does that put the game on those two? No. This was as team of a loss as team losses get.
Pablo Sandoval was 0-for-2 in 2 opportunities with the bases loaded.
Brandon Belt and Joaquin Arias left Angel Pagan on 3rd with 0, and 1 outs, respectively in the 7th.
Matt Cain made a huge mistake to Ian Desmond by leaving one up when Buster wanted it down, which really re-started the Nats’ rally.
The Giants left 11 men on base.
Casilla made an error on a sacrifice bunt, and you never know how the game would’ve been different.
#3: We would’ve won if that play had been executed!
You don’t know that, and I don’t know that.
#4: Bochy lost that game for us.
For all Bochy does, I don’t think he lost this one for us. With Cain and his 6.2 IP done with, Bochy brought in Affeldt to play the percentages, no problem with that. Affeldt doesn’t get anyone, so instead of Penny, Bochy brings in Romo. Definitely no problem with that. In the 9th, Arias moves to 3rd, Crawford moves to Short, Nate goes to RF, I’m fine with that. Casilla in the 9th, for the whole 9th — with the mess Casilla got himself into, if Bochy wanted to get into a platoon game with Javier and Penny, that bullpen wouldn’t have lasted extra innings very long if they would have even made it, so I didn’t have a problem with that. My biggest problem was with his lineup having Christian 1st and Theriot 2nd, and it worked out tonight. This means it could become the lineup vs. LHP, which makes me a little sad.
Some will disagree with the things I said and that’s fine. Remember, this is one game, and there’s 79 games left, and this team may look way different 30 days from now.
So 3 games down, and 15 to go against the Dodgers. The feeling going into this series had pretty good levels of anticipation, the Dodgers with an inflated record from playing less than mediocre clubs, the Giants depleted from injuries making them worse than the Miami Marlins.
Tim Lincecum looked good for three innings. I’m talkin’ not-2012 good — I’ve got your attention now, haven’t I? He actually had 8 K’s amongst his 5 innings of Wednesday night. 3 of them belonged to the one that gets those MVP chants. It kills me though that the 0-2 pitch to Tony Gwynn Jr. with the bases loaded was a hanger of a splitter up and in, a prime pitch to pull. I think a part of me died inside. I don’t like seeing Dodger fans happy, because they’re the bad guys.
What didn’t kill me as much at the time but in hindsight Nate Schierholtz just made an absolute not even Little League but slow-pitch softball stupid play making a wide turn with the ball in CF that would’ve scored Belt to make it 3-0. Who knows what the game would’ve been after that (we could’ve lost 10-3, but hey, we love to speculate don’t we). No doubt Nate’s going to be grilled about it, but this game’s really on him, as much as I want to put it on Timmy for that 0-2 WTF.
If your staring at the standings and panicking, may I remind you it’s May 9th. I’m going to also remind you that some players don’t play for a month how they play for a whole season. Do not be surprised to see the Dodgers continue to do well in the first half (seriously, look at their schedule), but the second half of the season may tell a different story for the NL West. Lots of time.
Like I said earlier in my tweet parade, this day off tomorrow should do real well for Buster Posey. Some of his ABs just look like he’s exhausted.
In Arizona, here are your matchups (K/9, BB/9, ERA, FIP, xFIP):
Friday – Madison Bumgarner (5.08, 2.08, 2.31, 3.58, 3.99) vs. Patrick Corbin (8.00, 5.00, 7.00, 4.61, 3.93) in 1 start
Saturday — Matt Cain (7.94, 1.39, 2.38, 3.08, 3.42) vs. Trevor Cahill (5.35, 3.49, 3.26, 3.33, 3.70)
Sunday – Barry Zito (4.42, 4.17, 2.21, 4.42, 5.18) vs. Joe Saunders (5.90, 2.27, 2.50, 3.77, 3.95)
Going through my Twitter feed tonight and it’s not like tonight was unlike any other night — people calling Pujols a “traitor,” with talk of CJ Wilson nowhere to be found — but there was a thought put out that the Giants offense going into 2012 isn’t going to be any better. Immediately I thought of it as just more whining but then I wondered if I could see using 2011 numbers what we can possibly forecast to determine how much better, worse or the same the offense could be in 2012. It’s December 8th right now and the season doesn’t even start for another 4 months. Minus Aubrey Huff, here are the people that played the OF for the Giants as well as the two new additions to the OF. I’ll let you sink some of this in:
*There is no average for wRC+ listed since I was noticing inaccuracies with AVG and OBP and I decided I only wanted to keep the number of stats I could butcher at 2 at the most. Those numbers put together and averaged is 96, but I don’t know how accurate that is.
Keep in mind that Pagan is probably now the top of the order guy. He also stole 32 bags last year, which is 15 less than that group did in 2011 (Andres had 19 of them). I did recalculate the average Batting Averages and On Base Percentages so it’s possible the SLG and wOBA for the group might be off by a little bit. What’s notable is the two newbies don’t walk all that much, which might be OK for Melky, but Pagan will need to step that up especially since his OBP is right in line with what the OF was doing in 2011. His OBP was worse than Cody’s and for some reason it seemed to me like he was never getting on. Both of them strike out much less though, which is a very welcome sight after watching Rowand and Torres just get murdered out there (and as the numbers show, so did Burrell, Belt and Ross).
Going into 2012 this list will be without the names of Ford, Beltran, Burrell, Rowand, Torres and Ross and hopefully at the end of 2012 when you look up “Giants OF” Brandon Belt’s name doesn’t show up alongside with it. The big name of the group though is Beltran who had the biggest offensive impact and it is a shame the Giants won’t be able to scoop him up this offseason with the acquisitions of Cabrera and Pagan. Without Carlos’ contributions all the averages look pretty gross and so it’s easy to say that the 2012 Giants will be better than the 2011 pre-Beltran Giants. Of course, all this assuming the Giants don’t get hit with the DL bug as bad as they did last season.
But what about the 2011 with-Beltran Giants? I’d say they’re a little better because you have someone that can get on base more in Pagan, someone that can protect Posey and Panda in Cabrera and you have a Baby Giraffe that has grown up more and hopefully won’t get the lights abused out of him this year. It’ll be interesting to see how things will be different, but I’m comfortable with saying and hopeful that the group in 2012 will be better than the groups put out in 2011.
I feel like I’m alone on a boat with my flippy-floppys on this one: I would love for the Giants to trade for Nick Swisher. Before I looked up his stats I was like just about everyone else though thinking, “Nick Swisher? That one guy who hit .220 with the White Sox? Let’s see how bad this is.” So I looked at how bad it was and this is what I found:
2009: 150 G, 607 PA, 29 HR, 16.0 BB%, 20.8 K%, .272 BABIP, .371 OBP, 124 wRC+, -3.0 UZR/150
2010: 150 G, 635 PA, 29 HR, 9.1 BB%, 21.9 K%, .335 BABIP, .359 OBP, 132 wRC+, 0.9 UZR/150
2011: 150 G, 635 PA, 23 HR, 15.0 BB%, 19.7 K%, .295 BABIP, .374 OBP, 122 wRC+, 8.8 UZR/150
Not the big bottle of disappointment I was expecting to open. The man will celebrate turning 31 in 5 days and let’s address the elephant in the room: Yes, being on the Yankees will help your stats because you’re protected all around by some excellent hitters. If he came to the Giants would he have that protection? He also only started batting 1 game in the 4 spot last year, doing most of his work from the 5 or 6 hole (37, 78 G respectively). Should he come AT&T-side, there might be a push to put him in the 4-spot right away and after playing under the bright lights in New York, you’d hope he can handle the pressure that comes with being the clean-up guy.
Some people are wondering though: Hey, why not Carlos Beltran? He’s pretty good and some of his stats were better than Swisher’s! You would be correct in that thought but in my opinion he is a higher (injury) risk and would require a bigger commitment (more than the one year left on Nick’s contract). They probably will get paid around the same with Swisher’s $10.25MM option getting picked up by the Yankees for 2012. I’ll take the guy with the track record for playing the whole season.
The question becomes who would the Giants trade for Swisher? And that’s where it gets ugly for the G’s in my opinion. You just traded Wheeler for Beltran and you’re going to trade AGAIN for a short-term OF? While adding a bat NOW would be great for the short-term, how much do you mortgage the long-term with trading for Swisher? That is the question the front office is considering while wondering how they can keep payroll below the $130MM we have heard they would prefer to stay away from.
No one’s going to dispute it, I’m not even going to say otherwise, but we know that overall Carlos Beltran is better than Nate Schierholtz. The big question for me going forward though is “how much better?” Enough to give him a 2/$24MM deal with a 3rd year option? (This is the deal I expect the Giants to offer)
I’m conflicted: I want Beltran back to be a force in the lineup but I want Nate’s defense in the OF without Belt having to platoon again in all of 2012 in what would probably make it a wasted year not just for Belt, but for Nate as well.
So I wanted to investigate in the last 3 years, what is the difference between Nate and Carlos? These are all offensive stats being shown because really, is there any argument who’s better on defense? In the “difference” rows, if the number is positive it means Beltran has that much more than Nate. If negative, Nate has that much more than Beltran. Let’s take a look, shall we:
**By the way, I have no idea why the font gets so small. Would love any help in trying to fix that. Sorry for the inconvenience.**
For the first time since Nate started playing a full season Beltran finally played more games than him. How convenient to do that in a career year. Beltran is well known to be a machine that could be breaking down. Nate isn’t without injury though, ending 2011 on the DL which was well chronicled. When Beltran has a 140+ G season like he does though, the number he puts up can be pretty sexy. Still though, 22 2B in 115 G for Nate is not too shabby.
Yesterday we took a look at the pitching portion of the roster which I estimated to be around $90MM and the Bay Area News Group have posted their arbitration estimates for the whole team here and the numbers aren’t that far off from the estimates I shot forth. Now we take a look at the hitters that are set to come back (or are under payroll), arbitration eligible, and free agents. I’m sure you’re aware of the free agents on the item.
Under Contract in 2012
Aaron Rowand ($13.6MM, released in 2011 due to attitude and sucking. 2012 is his last year.)
Aubrey Huff ($10MM, has option for 2013)
Freddy Sanchez ($6MM)
Buster Posey ($575K in 2011, under control until 2016)
Brandon Belt ($414K in 2011)
Arbitration Eligible (Salary in 2011, Years of Arbitration Left)
Jeff Keppinger ($2.3MM, 1)
Andres Torres ($2.2MM, 2)
Mike Fontenot ($1.05MM, 2)
Pablo Sandoval ($500K, 3)
Nate Schierholtz ($432.5K, 3)
Eli Whiteside ($425K, 3)
Free Agents (Salary in 2011)
Carlos Beltran ($20.07MM)
Cody Ross ($6.3MM)
Mark DeRosa ($6MM)
Orlando Cabrera ($1MM)
Pat Burrell ($1MM)
Miguel Tejada ($6.5MM)
The big question on that arbitration eligible and free agent list is “who will be brought back?” Well, consider that we already have $31.5MM committed to the first category listed and that already puts the Giants at about $120MM of payroll. “Holy F***,” you say. I agree. So which arbitration eligible hitters are tendered? I’m going to guess 4 — Kepp, Panda, Nate, Fonty. However, I expect the Giants to trade Keppinger for something after tendered like a giveaway night that actually gives every fan a bobblehead so they don’t have to spend all day in line for an item that costs the price of admission. For the 3 that stay, I expect it to be somewhere around $5MM for all of them put together. Now that’s $36.5MM for our hitters. So now what? The payroll’s approximately $125MM and you want another hitter? God, you’re selfish. Oh, you want a leadoff hitter? What, have you been good this year or something? Oh, you gave your top prospect away? That was nice of you.
I’m not even going to guess who they Giants might go after. Some have said Coco Crisp. Just what we need, another mascot. Johnny Damon? Hasn’t played CF consistently in years. Andruw Jones? Fits the profile, I suppose. An Aaron Rowand-lite! Josh Willingham? Same as Damon. Jason Kubel? Might as well sign Beltran. Juan Pierre? That would be interesting, to say the least.
So I guess the question will be: How much will Sabes and Co. overpay for Coco and will they have the funds to bring Beltran back to platoon Nate/Belt? The possibilities are limited, and they are definitely frustrating to think through.