Results tagged ‘ Zack Wheeler ’
The regular season begins
this Sunday tomorrow at 5:05PM PST when the Texas Rangers play the Houston Astros in that famous AL West rivalry, which means this week is all about previews, bold predictions, and message board put downs. I will say I am not good at predicting things, so let’s get that straight. Like everybody else though, I have an opinion on the matter of how events will play out. Let us preview the postseason, where the best team doesn’t always win due to the randomness of how the short series will go. It’s a first team to eleven wins once the DS begins, and normally the team that catches fire tends to do the celebrating. Also in my analysis, the team that scores more runs tend to win games. I’ll start with who I have going into the playoffs, then the predictions of the resulting postseason series. After that, I’ll go into regular season awards.
NL Playoff Seeding
1. Washington Nationals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Atlanta Braves
5. San Francisco Giants
Wild-Card Play-in Game
Atlanta beats San Francisco
Atlanta beats Washington
Cincinnati beats Los Angeles
Cincinnati beats Atlanta
AL Playoff Seeding
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Toronto Blue Jays
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Texas Rangers
Wild-Card Play-in Game
Tampa Bay beats Texas
Detroit beats Tampa Bay
Toronto beats LA of A
Detroit beats Toronto
World Series (game will be in AL Park when AL wins ASG)
Detroit beats Cincinnati
Don’t worry Tiger fans, I’m sure my predictions won’t be correct!
Regular Season Awards
I will go into who the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year for both leagues will be. These will also probably be wrong.
AL MVP — Mike Trout
Asking me if I’m mad, bro? Nah, not mad, but let’s say Mike Trout does even 80% of what he did in 2012 in 2013, and his team gets to the playoffs, the voters are going to give him his “redemption,” and feel good that “see, we don’t hate advanced stats,” as we roll our collective eyes together. Sophomore slump? Maybe a little, but the only thing that will stop this fish is if he gets hurt playing the game.
NL MVP — Justin Upton
They say a change of scenery can do wonders for a player, and how about playing with an organization that wants you? I’d say that’s a good start. I think Upton will have a career year, players like Braun and Posey will regress a little, and Upton will find his team in the playoffs. Justin Upton may not have the best year of everybody, but I think he gets the award.
AL Cy Young — Justin Verlander
Kind of like Trout, he’s only going to get stopped by an injury. He should continue to rack up the pitcher wins, satisfying the old school, and his team will make the playoffs all with lots of money, and lots of strikeouts. Probably not many multi-homer against games though. Verlander is just excellent.
NL Cy Young — Clayton Kershaw
Dickey was a great story in 2012, but I still side with the overall metrics a bit on Kershaw, believing he got snubbed by just a little bit, nothing too controversial. Kershaw, like Verlander, will be getting plenty of pitcher wins behind a boosted offense, and he’s still really, really good. Oh, and his team will be going to the playoffs so that equals instant votes.
AL Rookie of the Year — Jackie Bradley Jr.
Shot up the prospect lists in 2012 into 2013, and is projected to start with the team. For the kid, the defense will be getting peoples attention, while the stick may not be able to do anything super special, it’ll be enough. Lots of names for both RoY awards, JBJ just happens to be my guess right now.
NL Rookie of the Year — Zack Wheeler
Wheeler will not come up until June and he’ll still get the award. Dominating the minors, and yes, I understand the pain he’s going to cause Giants fans, but the kid is good, and will be going after his opposition from the get-go with heat and curveballs and breaking balls and strikeouts.
Let’s hear what your predictions are! Pretty much anything goes before the season gets going.
From Baseball Prospectus’ Mets Top Ten Prospects:
Just can’t help it. And now my face is all bruised up. I’ll just blame my cats again.
Right? If you write about baseball, or you think you can right about baseballs (lulz), chances are you can make predictions or give a take on the second half of the season that has/hasn’t been said before, or provide first-half analysis, but do it in a different way from other people.
I use Excel spreadsheets:
Boom. How you like these apples? You may have seen something like this in a Fansided post I did last month, and now it’s updated. Spent all night updating it, so I hope you appreciate the work. If you don’t, well take in the numbers that are important here: the Giants are 20-20 against teams with a .500 record or better (despite their most recent 9-10 stretch versus winning teams) and have 30/76 (~40%) of their remaining games against those teams including 12 against the Dodgers, who may or may not look the same the next time we see them. I have a hard time seeing top Dodger prospect Zach Lee making it through this season without being traded. As long as the Dodgers don’t win it all, this could be a season we look back on and kind of point and laugh at them much in the same way people do at the Giants for that deal last year involving a different Zack. In both scenarios though, the deal needs/needed to be done to acquire an impact player, and I don’t know how impact of a guy they can get in this market. The most important number may be that they have 13 games against the Rockies, who are hopelessly lost right now. The next most outside of the NL West are the 7 against the Braves, and the 6 against the Jose Altuves.
Despite being one game under .500, the DBacks are 4 back of the Dodgers, and 3.5 behind the Giants, so for now we will consider them being in the hunt and not giving up on Justin Upton, which is another issue in of itself. The Dodgers, though they have swept the Cardinals, have 8 left against them, and still have to finish their season series with the Nationals, Pirates, Reds, Braves, and the Mets (Giants are done with two of those guys, DBacks, are done with the Braves). The Dodgers, despite starting very well against winning competition, have regressed to one game over, but have one win up on the Giants at the moment. The Diamondbacks in terms of their schedule have more games against over .500 teams to finish the season largely in part to the Giants, Dodgers, and Reds, but have struggled overall against such foes going 19-26, which hopefully is a number that only gets worse (for them).
Unimportant observation: Did you notice the summed up records of opponents that are below .500 for the Giants and Dodgers were exactly the same? How ’bout that.
Key part of the schedule: Friday, September 7th through Monday, September 24th. Here’s why:
Giants face: vs. Dodgers (3), @Rockies (3), @DBacks (3), vs. Rockies (4), vs. Padres (3)
Dodgers face: @Giants (3), @DBacks (2), vs. Cardinals (4), @Nationals (3), @Cincinnati (3)
DBacks face: @Padres (3), vs. Dodgers (2), vs. Giants (3), vs. Padres (3), vs. Rockies (4)
Notice a difference in the degree of difficulty the Giants and DBacks face versus what the Dodgers have to go through? Shoot, the DBacks barely have to travel during that stretch, and the Giants go as far as Colorado while the Dodgers get to go to the other side of the States. This could make the end of the season an interesting one for the NL West.
And now, for the part that anyone can do (and will probably be wrong): The prediction.
Thursday, July 12th
Dodgers 47-40 –
Giants 46-40 0.5
Dbacks 42-43 4.0
Thursday, October 4th
Giants 90-72 –
Dodgers 88-74 2.0
DBacks 87-75 3.0
This means the Giants have to win 58% of the games left. Should be doable, especially if the starters (I’m thinking of specifically two of them) can give the team a chance to win. It’s a long season, and I may be a bit optimistic, but we’ll hope for the best (for us and only us).